The long second wave is finally on its way down, with the rate of infection having fallen now for four days in a row.

There has been a gradual fall in cases since January 8, when the second wave reached its peak in Reading, with the case rate rising just once since it reached its peak of more than 800.

The Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS) spoke to Reading Borough Council’s (RBC) public health consultant David Munday to get his view on the latest situation.

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Firstly, these are the case rates per 100,000 over seven days in Reading over the last nine days.

The most recent data from January 20 shows the numbers of cases there have been per 100,000 in Reading from January 14-20.

Jan 8 – 809.1

Jan 9 – 762.1

Jan 10 – 757.8

Jan 11 – 759.1

Jan 12 – 739.3

Jan 13 – 739.3

Jan 14 – 715.8

Jan 15 – 684.9

Jan 16 – 699.7

Jan 17 – 687.4

Jan 18 – 634.8

Jan 19 – 615.7

Jan 20 – 603.3

The figures show the case rate has fallen on most days since the peak on January 8, and every day since an increase on January 16.

Reading Chronicle: Weekly Case Rate Up To Jan 20Weekly Case Rate Up To Jan 20

Comparatively, case rates rose from 479.7 to 809.1 in just 12 days, from December 27 to January 8.

Reading Borough Council’s public health consultant David Munday said: “Reading has seen the sharp increase of the month of December like pretty much everywhere, almost completely due to the variant.

“It looks like we are coming out the other side. We are continuing to decrease. Its definitely moving down again.

“That has been a trend for eight or nine days, which I think is an indication that the lockdown restrictions are working.”

Reading Chronicle: Daily Number Of Cases Graph Up To Jan 24Daily Number Of Cases Graph Up To Jan 24

What does he look at to determine how the situation is in Reading?

Mr Munday said: “The rate of infection is the over-arching key metric.

“The positivity rate is also important because the case is rate is influenced by how many people go for a test.”

The latest figures show a positivity rate of 16.8 per cent, whereas at the beginning of January this was 20 per cent.

Throughout most of the Autumn this was five per cent and case rates were in the low hundreds, which shows “there is still a long way to go for the numbers to come down to the levels we feel more comfortable with”.

Mr Munday also keeps an eye on age, because the risks of being hospitalised or dying from Covid are higher the older you are.

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The case rate for over 60s was 464 on January 19 compared to 615.7 for all age groups.

The rate in 0–15-year-olds is also low compared to adult age groups, with most cases in the working population.