A new projection has predicted that Alok Sharma, the Conservative MP for Reading West, could lose his seat in a general election.
The polling data website Election Maps UK has released a recent projection of which party could win each constituency if a general election was held.
The most recent prediction sees the Conservatives losing Reading West constituency to the Labour party.
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It would mean that Alok Sharma, who’s been the MP since 2010, would lose to whoever the Labour candidate may be.
Election Maps UK predicts Labour would win the contest with a majority of 4,373 votes, a four per cent poll swing to the party.
Mr Sharma has managed to hang on for the last three general elections.
The closest Labour has come to unseating him was in 2017, when candidate Olivia Bailey received 22,435 votes, 2,876 shy of the 25,311 tally that saw Mr Sharma was returned to Parliament.
In 2019, Mr Sharma’s vote decreased to 24,393, but the vote for Labour candidate councillor Rachel Eden also declined, with Labour coming in second place again with 20,276, leaving Mr Sharma with a majority of 4,117.
The Local Democracy Reporting Service asked cllr Eden to comment on the projection that shows Labour winning.
Cllr Eden (Labour, Whitley) said: “Obviously opinion polls come and go and we would never take things for granted, but certainly in my view there’s been a shift of opinion on the doorstep.
“People are talking about giving Labour another chance, that they like Sir Keir Starmer and our policies. I think there’s a really good opportunity for Labour to have a hearing.
“People are willing to listen to us and tell us their hopes and fears, if we can put forward a strong policy offer and a good candidate we have a good chance of winning.”
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She added that Labour is a democratic party and it would be up to members to determine the party’s candidate.
Asked whether she would run again, cllr Eden said: “I’m happy to say I will be offering myself to Labour members.
“I think there’s a real chance we can convince people to support us. There will be other really strong candidates, hopefully multiple good people who want to represent Labour in our area.”
Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (15/05):
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) May 16, 2022
LAB: 300 (+98) - 38.4%
CON: 254 (-111) - 34.0%
SNP: 47 (-1) - 3.8%
LDM: 22 (+11) - 11.5%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.0%
RFM: 0 (=) - 2.9%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.7%
LAB 26 Short.
Changes w/ GE2019.https://t.co/Y304WEsKwv pic.twitter.com/99xgAkx331
Cllr Eden is currently serving as the Mayor of Reading.
She was recently re-elected as a representative for Whitley in the historic all out elections earlier this month.
Reading West has been in Labour hands before, when Martin Salter represented the constituency from 1997 to 2010, standing down ahead of the latter year’s election.
The next general election is expected to be held in 2024.
Mr Sharma and the chairman of the Reading West Conservatives have both been emailed for a comment.
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