Reading general election prediction sees Labour win

Labour is on the march as it has topped national polls for months and won the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections on Friday, October 20.

Nationally political projection site the Electoral Calculus predicts that Labour will win the next general election, with Labour getting 418 seats, the Conservatives 148, the Liberal Democrats winning 29 and the Green Party getting one MP.

But what is the election outlook like in Reading?

Reading is currently divided into two MP seats, an ‘East and a ‘West’ constituency.

Following changes made in the summer, the area will have three constituencies: Reading Central, Reading West & Mid Berkshire and Earley and Woodley.

Matt Rodda, the Labour MP for Reading East, is the presumptive Labour nominee for the Reading Central Seat.

The Electoral Calculus gives him a 99 per cent chance of winning at the next election.

The website predicts voters to the west are likely to break for the Conservatives, with a prediction that the Tories have a 52 per cent chance of winning the Reading West & Mid Berkshire constituency.

Although Sir Alok Sharma, the Conservative MP for Reading West was the presumptive MP, he announced that he would stand down when the election campaign begins. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have selected Helen Belcher as their candidate.

Helen Belcher, the Liberal Democrat candidate for the Reading West & Mid Berkshire constituency. Credit: Kirsten Bayes, Reading Liberal Democrats

Labour is predicted to win the entirely new Earley and Woodley constituency, with the Electoral Calculus giving them a 77 per cent chance of winning.

That comes as the Conservatives selected their candidate for the new seat in the summer.

Councillor Pauline Jorgensen (Conservative, Hillside), the leader of the opposition on Wokingham Borough Council will fight the election for the Tories.

Councillor Pauline Jorgensen (Conservative, Hillside) at the announcement that she will be the Conservative candidate for Earley and Woodley. Credit: Earley and Woodley Conservative Party

Meanwhile, Labour has just formed its Earley and Woodley branch following its party conference in Liverpool this month. 

Labour members have held their annual general meeting for the area and are due to select their candidate.

Cllr Rachel Eden (Labour, Whitley) said: “I’ll be seeking selection. I was first elected 13 years ago and I have been representing Whitley ever since.

“It would be a huge privilege to keep representing residents and also the wider area in Parliament.

“Although the new seat brings parts of four existing constituencies together there are lots of common issues across the area.

Councillor Rachel Eden, Mian Saleem, cllr Glenn Dennis deputy mayor, Mamuna Naz and Sikandar Hayat at Pakistan Independence Day in Reading. Credit: Sikandar Hayat

“There are national issues such as high house prices, the climate and the cost of living, and area-specific issues. For example, there are a lot of complaints about Thames Water and its impact on the Kennet and the Loddon.

“What would be really important for me as an MP would be bringing together areas which are close to each other but administratively separate.”

While Earley, Woodley and Shinfield are in Wokingham Borough, the new parliamentary seat is also made up of the Reading Borough wards of Whitley and Church.

Cllr Eden said: “The administrative difference is important but people here are neighbours, so I would like to bring them together more.”

Cllr Eden served as Reading Mayor from 2022-23. She said: “I spent a lot of time across South Reading, Earley and Woodley meeting with residents, they will recognise me as a councillor, mayor and in my professional life.”