Survation prediction sees Tories win two MP seats in Berkshire

The Conservatives currently hold six of the eight parliamentary constituencies that were in place for the last general election in 2019.

There are now nine constituencies in Berkshire after the political map of England was effectively redrawn last summer.

The polling company Survation has released its multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) prediction model, which states that Labour has a 99 per cent chance of winning more MPs than their landslide victory in 1997.

Survation claims that Labour will win the general election with 484 MPs, with the Conservatives severely reduced to 64 and the Liberal Democrats taking 61 seats in Parliament.

But what will that mean in Berkshire?

The general election results 2024 prediction for Berkshire. (Image: Survation)

These are the winners of each seat in Berkshire according to the projection:

Reading Central - Labour

Reading West & Mid Berkshire -  Labour

Earley and Woodley - Labour

Bracknell - Labour

Slough - Labour

Maidenhead - Liberal Democrats

Newbury - Liberal Democrats

Windsor - Conservatives

Wokingham - Conservatives

The prediction sees Labour taking five MP seats in Berkshire, more than double their current tally.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to win in Newbury and Maidenhead, with the Conservatives maintaining Windsor and Wokingham.

Remarkably, Conservative candidate Lucy Demery is expected to win the Wokingham constituency, despite an earlier YouGov poll in June predicting Liberal Democrat candidate councillor Clive Jones being the victor.

Cllr Jones has been the Liberal Democrat candidate since March 2022.

Also running in Wokingham are Monica Hamidi for Labour, Merv Boniface for the Green Party and Colin Wright for Reform UK.

Berkshire is guaranteed new MPs, with all but one of the six Conservative MPs elected in Berkshire at the general election in 2019 standing this year.

Sir John Redwood, the Conservative MP for Wokingham for 37 years from 1987 to 2024 stood down on Friday, May 24, two days after the election was called.

That left James Sunderland, the MP for Bracknell as the lone Conservative defending his seat.

Survation predicts Bracknell Labour candidate Peter Swallow will win with 38.2 per cent of the vote share, with Mr Sunderland coming in second place with 31.9 per cent.

Also running in Bracknell are Olivio Barreto, an Independent, Katie Mansfield for the Lib Dems, Jason Peter Reardon from the Heritage Party, Emily Torode for the Greens and Malcolm Tullett from Reform UK.

The prediction also sees both incumbent Labour MPs winning back their places in parliament.

Previously the MP for Reading East, Matt Rodda is Labour's candidate for Reading Central, and is predicted to win 50.7 per cent of the vote, with cllr Raj Singh for the Conservatives coming in second place.

The other candidates for Reading Central are cllr Dave McElroy for the Greens, Henry Wright for the Lib Dems, Andrew Williams from Reform UK, Adam Gillman, the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition candidate and Michael Turberville, who's standing as an Independent.

Finally, Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi is projected to hold the Slough constituency for Labour with 39.1 per cent of the vote, with Lib Dem Chelsea Whyte coming second with 18.4 per cent.

The other candidates in Slough are:

• Azhar Iqbal Chohan - Independent Network
• Diana Victoria Coad - Independent
• Julian Edwards - Green Party
• Robin Jackson - Reform UK
• Chandra Sekhar Muvvala - Independent
• Moni Kaur Nanda - Conservatives
• Adnan Shabbir - Workers Party of Britain
• Jaswinder Singh - Independent
• Nick Smith - Heritage Party

In-person voting for the general election takes place from 7am to 10pm on Thursday, July 4.