High infection levels and cases ‘mean UK is running hot on managing virus’

With infection prevalence in England at around 25 times higher than the same time last year, an expert said the current situation is “an early sense of what living with Covid-19 looks like”.

Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said while vaccines are reducing the number of hospital admissions and deaths, high case numbers “still place an unnecessary burden on the NHS”.

The rate of new cases of the virus is currently rising in all four nations, suggesting the sharp fall in Covid-19 cases that had been under way since mid-July has now come to an end.

Separately, the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey show levels of coronavirus infection remain high across much of the UK.

Prevalence is highest in Northern Ireland, where about one in 55 people are estimated to have had Covid-19 last week – unchanged on the previous week and the highest level since late January.

This is followed by England, where the number is about one in 75 people, also unchanged from the previous week.

The ONS said that while the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in England “continued to be high”, estimates suggest “an overall decreasing trend over the past two weeks”.

In Wales, where about one in 220 people are estimated to have had the virus last week, the trend is described by the ONS as “uncertain”. It is broadly unchanged on one in 230 in the previous week.

Scotland was the only area to see a fall, with ONS estimates suggesting about one in 190 people had Covid-19 in the week to August 7, down from one in 120 in the previous week.

According to the latest Government data, England recorded 301.6 new cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to August 8, up week on week from 282.3.

In Wales the rate is up week on week from 141.6 to 155.7, while Scotland’s rate has climbed from 143.7 to 156.1.

In Northern Ireland the rate has risen from 440.8 to 475.5 – the highest for any of the four nations.

The coronavirus reproduction number, or R value, in England is between 0.8 and 1, according to the latest Government figures.

Last week the number – which represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect – was between 0.8 and 1.1.

Dr Clarke said: “We are seeing an early sense of what living with Covid-19 looks like.

“As restrictions are lifted and the economy rebounds, we are ‘running hot’ when it comes to managing Covid spread.

“Wider rollout of the vaccine may reduce infections, but high case numbers still place an unnecessary burden on the NHS.”

Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said he expects to see a fourth wave in the wake of eased restrictions and with the return of schools and people moving indoors after the summer.

He said: “I would expect to see a rise in cases, a ‘fourth’ wave.

“I do not know the size of any new increase nor do I put much faith in those that claim with certainty to ‘know’.”

But Prof Naismith added: “I know that any significant rise in cases will lead to more long Covid-19 and increase the pressure on the NHS.”

He called for a “more effective (vaccine) campaign to encourage the take-up amongst the hesitant”, saying jabs are safe and effective and have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Prof Naismith added: “The more vaccinated people, the smaller any fourth wave.”

A new study has suggested people double-jabbed with the Moderna vaccine still had antibodies against coronavirus, including the Delta variant, six months after their second dose.

The company behind the vaccine said it is pleased with the results, which came from a small group of volunteers, and expects the new data might inform approaches to possible booster campaigns.

The research, published in the journal Science, looked at a random sample of eight volunteers in each of three age groups to monitor antibody levels and concluded that antibodies against variants were still present six months after the second jab, with “high levels” maintained against the Delta variant.

Moderna chief executive Stephane Bancel said: “We are pleased with these new data showing that people vaccinated with two doses of the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine maintained antibodies through six months, including against variants of concern such as the Delta variant.”

He added: “We expect that these data and the growing body of real-world evidence will help inform health regulators’ approaches to how and when to administer additional boosting doses.”

A further 100 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Friday, according to the latest Government figures, and there were a further 32,700 lab-confirmed virus cases in the UK.

Government data up to Thursday shows that 47,215,352 first doses of a Covid vaccine have now been administered, while 40,206,029 second doses have been given.